Quantitative assessment of the likelihood of introduction of Classical swine fever virus into india via importation of pigs from neighboring countries.

Input Values Annual undetected herd in a country:*

Total pig population in exporting country:*

Herd size of exporting country: *

Number of herds in exporting country: *

Probablity that infected pig herd is positive:*

No of pig shipments per herd per year:*

No of pig herds per shipment:*

No of pigs selected for export from a pig herd:*

No of days CSFV remains undetected in the country:*













Annual undetected herd in a country:

PERT DISTRIBUTION with mimimum min, most likely mode & maximum max value of number of outbreaks. g =( min+lambda*mode+max)/ lambda where, lambda=4,The lambda parameter controls the scale of the distribution (the peakedness) i.e; PERT network assumption that the best estimate of the duration of a task. (Ref: Book: Risk Analysis : A quantitative guide by David Vose). Outbreaks collected b/w 2008-2015 from OIE-listed disease/infections database. min = Lowest no of outbreaks in the study duration max = Max no of outbreaks mode = max / total no of years in study duration.

Total Pig Population in exporting country:

Pig Population in China, Bhutan & Myanmar for the year 2015. (Ref: http://www.anivax.com/number-of-pigs-by-country)

Number of Herds in exporting country:

Fraction of total pig poulation by herd size for each of the respective exporting countries. Normally, Herd size Classified under small, medium & large farms.Example:
Bhutan= 20, 30, 40 & 50.China= 1000,4000,8000 & 12000 Myanmar= 250, 500, 1000 (Ref: Asia & Pacific Commission on agriculture statistics, 23rd Session , 2010)

Probablity that infected pig herd is positive:

Mean Prevalence of CSFV infection in each of respt countries China, Bhutan, (Ref: An investigation of classical swine fever virus seroprevalence and risk factors in pigs in Timor-Leste. Kate Sawford et al. Seroprevalence and Associated Risk Factors of Important Pig Viral Diseases in Bhutan. V R Mongern et al. Investigation on the co-Infections of Toxoplasma Gondii with PRRSV, CSFV or PCV-2 in Swine in Part of China. Shuai Wang et al.) Myanmar.Prevalence = No.of cases in study duration/ Pig Population.

No of pig shipments per herd per year:

Assumed to be 1. As only entry per year was shown at the APEDA website (Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority), India.

No of days CSFV remains undetected in the country:

Median no of CSF outbreaks during the next five years & duration of HRP based on expert knowledge. (Ref: Quantitative model for the likelihood of introducing CSFV into Denmark)